YouGov seat projection for Cambridgeshire constituencies

There are eight constituencies across Cambridgeshire - Cambridge, South Cambridgeshire, Ely and East Cambridgeshire, North East Cambridgeshire, Huntingdon, North West Cambridgeshire, St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire, and Peterborough.

YouGov's seat projection is a MRP, which is a Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification model, which uses polling data to create a projection. Read more about how YouGov use MRP here.

Here's a breakdown of the YouGov seat projection for each Cambridgeshire constituency with the percentages.

The latest MRP seat projection was from May 24, 2024 - June 1, 2024. YouGov have stated that many things are happening everyday (since June 1) which will influence this projection leading up to the election. 

Independent candidates are not included in the YouGov MRP seat projection.

Huntingdon 

The MRP seat projection has the Huntingdon seat marked as a tossup between the Conservatives and Labour, but indicates that the Conservatives may hold the seat.

As it stands, the Conservatives sit with a 37 per cent chance of holding the seat, while Labour are sitting at 32.3 per cent.

The Lib Dems are at 12.4 per cent, Reform are at 11, and the Greens are at 6.6 per cent.

Ely and East Cambridgeshire

YouGov has projected that Lucy Frazer is likely to hold her seat in the constituency. The Conservatives sit at the top of the projection with 36.3 per cent and the Lib Dems are behind them with 25.7 per cent.

Labour follow the Lib Dems closely at 21.7 per cent, followed by Reform at 10.1 per cent and the Greens at 5.4 per cent.

North West Cambridgeshire

This seat is projected to be a tossup between the Conservatives and Labour, but could be a Labour gain from the Conservatives.

Labour sit at 37.3 per cent, the Conservatives at 32.9 per cent, Reform at 12.5 per cent, the Lib Dems at 9.6 per cent and the Greens at 6.9 per cent.

If this projection comes true, it would be a shock swing - Shailesh Vara has been the Conservative MP for North West Cambridgeshire since 2005.

North East Cambridgeshire

The projection is a likely Conservative hold for this seat, as they sit at 41 per cent. Labour follow, with 30.3 per cent.

Reform sit at 16.3 per cent, the Lib Dems at 6.8 per cent and the Greens at 4.7 per cent.

St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire

The St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire seat looks to be a close call, but the projection says it's leaning to the Conservatives at 33.7 per cent.

Behind them are the Lib Dems at 26.8 per cent, followed by Labour at 25.9 per cent, Reform at 8.7 per cent and the Greens at 4.8 per cent.

Peterborough

The projection suggests that Labour are likely to gain the seat from the Conservatives. Labour sit at 49.6 per cent, Conservatives at 24.9 per cent, Reform at 12 per cent, Greens at 7.1 per cent, and the Lib Dems at 6.1 per cent.

Cambridge

Cambridge is projected to be a safe Labour seat. They sit with 52.7 per cent, Lib Dems are behind them at 23.2 per cent, and the Greens at 10.5 per cent.

The Conservatives are at 5.2 per cent, and Reform are at 4.1 per cent.

South Cambridgeshire

The South Cambridgeshire projection is a Lib Dem gain from the Conservatives. The Lib Dems are at 43.7 per cent, Conservatives at 26.9 per cent and Labour at 19.3 per cent.

Reform are at6.4 per cent, and the Greens at 2.7 per cent.